JMA Forecast: Winter 23/24
Written on October 18th, 2023 by Eliot Cochrane
23/24 Winter Predictions
El Niño: What Will It Bring?
Japan’s ski culture is renowned for its blend of world-class resorts and endless snow to provide the perfect background for the skier to let loose. While larger ski areas often steal the limelight, the smaller ski areas offer a unique charm and experiences that will live in dreams for years. As winter approaches, these lesser-known hills are preparing for a ski season overshadowed by an El Niño climate pattern.
Often relying on natural snow cover to prepare the trails, El Niño patterns can have a greater impact than those that have man-made methods at their disposal. The 2023/24 winter predictions by the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) spell out a slurry of potential challenges for these ski areas that operate under-the-radar. Predictions of warmer temperatures and variable snowfall put the ski resort business in a mindset of adaptation and resilience.
Temperature
The JMA has predicted an El Niño pattern for the winter of 2023/24 and with it will bring higher temperatures. Already felt during the summer, the high temperatures gave a scorched earth feeling with temperatures averaging 1.76°C higher than normal. Forecasts from JMA expect a 90% likelihood that these above-normal temperatures will continue into the winter season.
Photo: Forecast from Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) showing temperature forecast for 2023/24 season.
While the temperature changes may be less prevalent at higher altitudes, effects will be felt the whole way down. Higher temperatures don’t only reduce snowfall but may increase rainfall, leading to highly saturated snow that during cold snaps will turn into ice. Many lower altitude ski areas may feel reminiscent of east coast skiing in America.
Snowfall
El Niño usually leads to reduced snowfall throughout the season but may also be accompanied by rain. The Hokkaido area and the higher elevations within the Tohoku area, which are typically dry and light powdery snow, are expected to be less affected by the climate pattern. These areas are boasting a 40% chance of below-average snowfall but still boasting a 30% chance for above-average snowfall.
Photo: Forecast from Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) showing snowfall forecast for 2023/24 season.
In contrast, places like Nagano and Niigata within the central Honshu region, are expected to have a 50% chance of below-normal snowfall for the 2023/24 season. Honshu usually provides such great snow because of the cold air that is moisture-filled coming from the greater Asian continent rising with the mountains. This phenomenon will be at the hands of the greater Asian continent and how cold the air will be from there. While many years these areas may be resistant, the ski resorts will be preparing as best they can.
Lastly
Smaller ski areas in Japan will be aware of the incoming El Niño pattern and will be preparing with all they have. Bringing higher temperatures and decreased snowfall, this season could be particularly difficult compared to past years without adapting. Of course, ski enthusiasts can have a great day at the larger resorts with their man-made options. On the other hand, the below-the-radar ski hills have a knack for delivering exciting, unexpected surprises, even in the face of an uncertain seasonal forecast.
